AviationTurbine Fuel (ATF) or jet fuel is a specialized type of petroleum-based fuelused for powering jet and turbo-prop engined aircraft. ATF is clear to strawcoloured blend of hydrocarbons and also contains additives such asantioxidants, metal deactivators, anit-static agensts, corrosion inhibitorsetc.
Incrude oil refining, it is classified as a middle-distillate along with dieseland kerosene. Jet fuel is actually a highly refined grade of kerosene.
JetA-1 and Jet A are two main grades of turbine fuel used in civil commercialaviation. Both of them are kerosene type fuels and are produced to aninternationally standardized set of specifications.
JetA, which is mainly used in the United States, must have a freeze point of -40ºCor below, while Jet A-1 used in almost all other countries must have a freezepoint of -47ºC or below. The only other jet fuel, commonly used in civilianturbine engine-powered aviation is called Jet B, which is a fuel in thenaphtha-kerosene region and is used for its enhanced cold-weather performance.
Theother aviation fuels include military jet fuels (predominantly JP-4, JP-5 andJP-8), which too are kerosene type fuels. Aviation gasoline is used inspark-ignition aviation engines.
Aviationfuels are derived from crude oil and its price shows high correlation withcrude oil prices (96% in 2008). Airline industry and crude oil refineries aretwo largest sectors facing huge price risk owing to the high volatility inprices.
Theglobal airline industry s fuel bill is estimated to total US$114 billion in2009 (accounting for 25% of operating expenses at US$61.8/barrel Brent of oil).
Thetotal global production of aviation fuels in 2007 is estimated to be 1765million barrels in 2007, which is 6.3% of total global production of refineryproducts in 2007.
Itis estimated that in 2007, global consumption of jet fuel was around 5.1million barrels a day. U.S. consumers are estimated to have utilizedapproximately 1.63 million barrels per day.
However,Asia-Pacific region is showing the most growth currently. The International AirTransport Association (IATA) estimates that in 2009 Asia-Pacific travelerstotaled 647 million against 638 million who travelled within North America(including domestic markets). By 2013 an additional 217 million travelers areexpected to take to the skies within Asia-Pacific.
USis the largest refiner of crude oil holding 20% of the total world refiningcapacity of 87,700 kilo barrels per calendar day, followed by China (8.9%),Former Soviet Union (8.8%), Japan (5.3%) and India (4.1%).
World Kerosene Markets
TokyoCommodity Exchange (TOCOM) and C-COM
Thegrowth of the Indian economy, rising incomes of the country s middle class andentry of private players in India s aviation industry has lead to a sharpincrease in domestic consumption of ATF in recent years. Despite the risingdemand, the country is self-sufficient and even exports a significant quantityof ATF.
Indias production of all petroleum products has shown a sharp improvement in theprevious two decades, aided by the setting up of new refineries and increasedcapacity utilization. The production of ATF in 2008-09 is estimated at 59.2million barrels.
Indias consumption of ATF in 2008-09 is estimated to be 32.6 million barrels in2008-09, which is sharply up by 58% from 2004-05 consumption of 20.6 millionbarrels.
ATFexports from India have also been rising, with it increasing from 20.7 millionbarrels in 2005-06 to 25.6 million barrels in 2008-09.
InIndia, kerosene is sold through three channels - public distribution system(PDS) for domestic use, industrial kerosene and as ATF. The prices ofindustrial kerosene and ATF are revised dynamically by domestic refiners in tandemwith international prices. Thus, volatility in crude oil prices spills over todomestic ATF prices.
Market Influencing Factors
Globally,ATF prices are highly correlated with crude oil prices as it is produced bydistilling crude oil. Thus, all factors influencing crude oil prices have aprofound influence on ATF prices too. These factors include, supply-demand,global economic scenario, natural disasters, currency fluctuations,geo-political tensions, interest rates, prices of other assets, commoditiesetc.
Thedemand from the aviation industry is the next important influencing factor.Growth in air traffic - passengers / cargo, global economic scenario, globalindustrial production, international trade, improvement in aircraftfuel-burning efficiency and a variety of other variables influences the demandfrom aviation sector.
Disruptionsin production due to extreme weather or other unforeseen events can lead toprices picking up.
1 US Barrel = 42 US Gallons
1 US Barrel = 158.98 litres
1 MT = 7.33 barrels
Note: Measurement of barrels pertonne vary from origin to origin
Source :- www.mcxindia.com
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